Students investigate: How can probability and percentages help us predict outcomes in a game of craps? What makes the odds in craps different from what players expect? Through dice simulations without real-money wagering, students develop theoretical probability distributions, calculate expected payoffs, and compare experimental results with player assumptions. They use their findings to evaluate strategies and fairness, then present an evidence-based recommendation or redesign that creates fairer odds.

Students will calculate theoretical probabilities and percentages for outcomes from rolling two dice and use them to predict results in a simulated game of craps. They will develop probability distributions, assign payoff values, and calculate expected values to determine the expected payoff of common bets. Students will compare predicted outcomes with simulation data to explain why players’ expectations may differ from the actual odds. They will analyze betting strategies and redesign a rule or payoff structure to make a no-money classroom game mathematically fair.

Students will create a probability distribution for two-dice outcomes, showing theoretical probabilities and percentages for common craps bets. Teams will conduct a no-money simulation, record results, and compare experimental outcomes with player expectations. Each student will calculate expected payoffs and analyze whether selected bets and decision strategies are fair. Teams will produce a final infographic or brief presentation answering how probability predicts craps outcomes and why actual odds differ from what players expect.

Begin with a no-money craps simulation using two dice and equal-value classroom tokens, with students first predicting which sums and outcomes are most likely. Teams run repeated come-out rolls, record frequencies, convert results to percentages, and compare experimental results with their initial expectations. Introduce a simple payoff table and ask teams to estimate expected payoff and identify whether the game is fair to players. Close by posting hypotheses for both questions: How can probability and percentages help predict craps outcomes, and why might the actual odds differ from what players expect?

Host a “Craps Probability Expo” where student teams run no-money simulation booths and present probability distributions, percentages, expected payoffs, and results from repeated trials. Teams explain how probability helps predict outcomes, why players’ expectations may differ from the actual odds, and whether common strategies change expected value. Visitors test each team’s proposed fair-game redesign using dice or a digital simulator, then vote on which design uses probability most effectively. Invite classmates, families, or staff to participate and provide brief feedback on the clarity and accuracy of each team’s analysis.