Launch
Launch
You will launch your probability investigation by testing surprising real-life scenarios, examining what makes a prediction convincing, and choosing a current issue you may investigate. You will record first estimates, compare them to evidence, study strong examples of probability communication, and leave with a focused question, an initial method idea, and clear expectations for the project products.
Days 1 - 2
Collect Evidence
Collect Evidence
You will gather and organize evidence for your current-issue probability investigation, calculate empirical probabilities from trial data or source data, and test whether your records are strong enough to support a fair decision claim later. You will document assumptions, track anomalies, and use peer critique to strengthen your method before moving into full analysis and prediction.
Days 6 - 8
Launch
Days 1–2
Day 1
๐งช Probability Mystery Lab
Launch
90m
Day 2
๐ผ๏ธ Showcase Criteria and Question Pitch
Deliverable
90m
Mystery & Question
Days 3–5
Day 3
๐งช Probability Mystery Lab
Launch
90m
Day 4
๐งญ Method Match Planning Board
Knowledge/Skill Building
90m
Day 5
๐ Investigation Plan Checkpoint
Assessment
90m
Collect Evidence
Days 6–8
Day 6
๐งญ Method Match Mini-Clinic
Knowledge/Skill Building
45m
Day 7
๐ Trial Data Collection Sprint
Project Work
90m
Day 8
โ
Evidence Gate Conference
Assessment
90m
Analyze & Present
Days 9–11
Day 9
๐ Probability Distribution Builder
Knowledge/Skill Building
70m
Day 10
๐ต Expected Value Decision Roundtable
Project Work
90m
Day 11
๐ผ๏ธ Likelihood Showcase Poster Draft
Deliverable
90m
Showcase
Days 12–12
Day 12
๐ค Likelihood Showcase Poster Defense
Assessment
90m
July 2026
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
29
Day 1
Launch
๐งช Probability Mystery Lab
30
Day 2
๐ผ๏ธ Showcase Criteria and Question Pitch
1
Day 3
Mystery & Question
๐งช Probability Mystery Lab
6
Day 4
๐งญ Method Match Planning Board
7
Day 5
๐ Investigation Plan Checkpoint
8
Day 6
Collect Evidence
๐งญ Method Match Mini-Clinic
13
Day 7
๐ Trial Data Collection Sprint
14
Day 8
โ
Evidence Gate Conference
15
Day 9
Analyze & Present
๐ Probability Distribution Builder
20
Day 10
๐ต Expected Value Decision Roundtable
21
Day 11
๐ผ๏ธ Likelihood Showcase Poster Draft
22
Day 12
Showcase
๐ค Likelihood Showcase Poster Defense