You will investigate a current issue, use probability to model possible outcomes, and decide how those results can support fair decisions and better strategies in real life. Through a Probability Mystery Lab and a preview of strong showcase examples, you will learn to calculate, interpret, and question predictions as your thinking develops over time. Your work will lead to a public Likelihood Showcase where you present a clear data story, explain your probability model and expected value, and show how your understanding changed from start to finish.

You will calculate and compare theoretical and experimental probabilities, build simple probability distributions, and find expected value to make and evaluate fair decisions. You will analyze a current issue by modeling possible outcomes, interpreting what the probabilities mean, and revising your prediction as new evidence changes your thinking. You will communicate your reasoning clearly through a data story and exhibition piece that shows your calculations, conclusions, and growth in explaining probability to others.

You will create quick investigation notes and trial probability models during the Probability Mystery Lab, then collect feedback during the Likelihood Showcase preview walk on what makes a prediction clear and convincing. Throughout the project, you will build a data story portfolio with sample spaces, probability distributions, expected value calculations, decision analyses, and short reflection checks that show how your thinking changes. Your final product is a poster that presents a probability prediction about a current issue, shows your calculations and model, and explains how your interpretation developed from start to finish. For the exhibition, you may also turn your poster into supporting slides or a digital board to present your prediction, answer questions, and share a brief growth statement.

Begin with a Probability Mystery Lab where you rotate through quick real-life scenarios, estimate outcomes, test results, and compare your predictions to actual probabilities. Then do a Likelihood Showcase preview walk to study sample posters, slides, and digital boards, and note what makes a probability claim clear, fair, and convincing. Close by choosing a current issue you might investigate for your own prediction project and writing one question about how probability could help explain or improve a real decision.

Host a “Likelihood Showcase” where you present your poster, slides, or digital board to classmates, families, and community guests, explaining your current-issue prediction, probability model, calculations, and expected value. Include a short reflection on how your thinking changed from your first estimate to your final conclusion and how you improved at calculating, interpreting, and communicating probability. Add a question-and-answer round so visitors can challenge your assumptions, ask about fairness in decisions, and discuss how probability shapes real choices. End with a gallery walk and feedback cards so your work is celebrated and you leave with specific responses to your data story.