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10th Grade  Project 2 weeks

Siege Smart: Mastering Odds and Strategy

kasimir r
Updated
HS.S-MD.B.7
HS.S-MD.B.5.a
HS.S-MD.B.6
HS.S-MD.B.5
HS.S-MD.B.5.b
+ 1 more
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Purpose

I can use probability and expected payoff to compare siege video game strategies.
What strategy gives you the strongest chance of winning a siege video game?
How can predictions change the way you play a siege game?
How do odds shape your choices during a siege match?
Use match data and simulations to recommend a fair strategy with the best expected value.

Learning goals

I can calculate probabilities for key outcomes in a siege video game.
I can assign payoff values and find each strategy’s expected value.
I can compare strategies using expected values, odds, and predicted outcomes.
I can use probability and random numbers to make fair game decisions.
I can defend which strategy offers the strongest chance of winning.

Standards
  • [Colorado] HS.S-MD.B.7 - (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
  • [Colorado] HS.S-MD.B.5.a - Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. *For example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or game at a fast-food restaurant.*
  • [Colorado] HS.S-MD.B.6 - (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).
  • [Colorado] HS.S-MD.B.5 - (+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
  • [Colorado] HS.S-MD.B.5.b - Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. *For example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or major accident.*
Competencies
  • Critical Thinking & Problem Solving - Students consider a variety of innovative approaches to address and understand complex questions that are authentic and important to their communities.

Products

Create a match strategy log. Include predicted outcomes, observed results, and calculated odds. Odds are how likely something is to happen.
Build an expected-value table. Compare at least three siege strategies and their possible payoffs.
Design a fair random method for one uncertain in-game decision. Then test it.
Turn in a final guide. Explain your strongest strategy. Show how odds and predictions shaped your choices.

Launch

Watch a siege match clip that pauses before one critical decision.
Record your strategy, predicted result, and estimated chance before viewing the outcome.
What strategy gives you the strongest chance of winning a siege video game?
How can predictions change the way you play a siege game?
How do odds shape your choices during a siege match?

Exhibition

Create an individual Siege Strategy Lab display with your probability model, predictions, and recommended strategy. Probability means chance.
Invite peers and gamers to test one match scenario and choose among possible actions.
Show each action’s odds, payoff, and expected value before revealing your strongest choice.
Collect visitor votes.
Then explain how their choices compare with your prediction.