Students will investigate the essential question: How can we use evidence from the Great Lakes to explain current climate trends and forecast future impacts on the environment around us? Teams will analyze Lake Erie geoscience data and climate-model results, trace feedbacks among Earth systems, and model carbon cycling and changing energy flows. They will use computational representations to forecast regional impacts of human activity and communicate an evidence-based claim to a local audience. Through shared decision-making, critique, and reflection, students will refine their models, reasoning, and proposed responses.

Students will investigate: How can we use evidence from the Great Lakes to explain current climate trends and forecast future impacts on the environment around us? They will analyze Lake Erie geoscience data and global climate-model results to identify current climate trends and make evidence-based forecasts of regional impacts. Students will model how changes in energy flow, carbon cycling, and Lake Erie’s surface conditions create feedbacks across the atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, and biosphere, including modifications caused by human activity. In collaborative teams, they will evaluate possible explanations, revise models using feedback, and clearly communicate claims supported by quantitative evidence.

Student teams will create an annotated Lake Erie climate dataset and graphs comparing historical observations with global climate model projections. They will develop a quantitative carbon-cycle model and a computational systems map showing how human activity, energy flow, and changes to Lake Erie’s surface conditions produce feedbacks across Earth systems. Each team will synthesize its evidence into a forecast briefing that answers, “How can we use evidence from the Great Lakes to explain current climate trends and forecast future impacts on the environment around us?” Teams will present their briefing to a community audience, respond to questions, and submit individual reflections incorporating peer and teacher feedback.

Open with a “Lake Erie Climate Evidence Mystery” using contrasting satellite images, ice-cover records, water-temperature graphs, lake-level data, and harmful algal bloom maps from different years. In teams, students rotate through evidence stations, record patterns and questions, and create an initial systems map linking the atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, and biosphere. Each team makes a preliminary forecast for one local impact, cites two pieces of evidence, and shares its reasoning during a gallery walk. Conclude by asking, “How can we use evidence from the Great Lakes to explain current climate trends and forecast future impacts on the environment around us?”

Host a “Lake Erie Climate Futures” public showcase where teams answer, “How can we use evidence from the Great Lakes to explain current climate trends and forecast future impacts on the environment around us?” Teams present an evidence-based forecast, an interactive carbon-cycle model, and a computational visualization showing how human activity modifies Lake Erie’s connected Earth systems and feedbacks. Invite families, school leaders, and local environmental or Great Lakes community partners to examine the evidence and ask questions, with each student leading a defined part of the presentation. Visitors provide feedback on scientific accuracy, clarity, and proposed responses, which students use for a final team reflection and revision.