Pokémon Pack Pull Probability Lab
1. Pick three Pokémon packs or pack prices to compare. 2. Find the pack price, hit rate, and one likely card value for each. 3. Calculate expected value for each pack. Expected value means the average money result over many opens. 4. Decide which pack has the best risk and reward. 5. Write a short claim for each essential question. 6. Show your math with clear steps. 7. Include one simple chart or table. 8. Turn in your math, chart, and final decision.
What you do
| # | What you do | Time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Choose three Pokémon packs or listed pack prices to compare. | 4 min |
| 2 | Find each hit rate, or valuable-pull chance, plus pack prices and likely card values. | 9 min |
| 3 | Record each source name beside its facts. | 3 min |
| 4 | Show each expected value, the average result, as decimal rate times card value minus price. | 10 min |
| 5 | Make one table listing pack, price, hit rate, card value, and expected value. | 7 min |
| 6 | Compare results and choose the pack with the best balance of risk and reward. | 6 min |
| 7 | Write one math-supported claim answering each essential question. | 8 min |
| 8 | Turn in your calculations, table, three claims, and final decision. | 3 min |
| Total | 50 mins |
Student Instructions
1. Choose three Pokémon packs or prices to compare.
2. Make a table showing price, hit rate, or pull chance, and one likely card value.
3. Expected value means the average money result across many pack openings.
4. Show clear steps using: (hit rate × card value) − pack price.
5. Submit your math, table, final risk-reward decision, and one claim answering each essential question.
Success Criteria
- I can record the price, hit rate, and likely card value for three packs.
- I can calculate each pack’s expected value and show every math step clearly.
- I can compare risk and reward using pack prices, hit rates, and card values.
- I can answer all three essential questions with claims supported by my calculations.
- I can show my results in one clear chart or table.
- I can choose the best pack and support my decision with probability and expected value.